Contagion 2011 movie vs reality 2020. Did it predict Corona virus ??? 2

The Contagion 2011 film, written by Scott Z. Burns and directed by Steven Soderbergh, pictures a worldwide outbreak of a deadly virus… sound familiar?  So in the article, we are going to compare everything they got right and everything they got wrong.  This story is about contagion (2011) vs. reality (2020)

It’s quite extraordinary to see a film almost a decade old, so accurately depict the existence of, possibly, the most massive pandemic we have seen this century. In this Documentary, we have referred to three points precisely,

1.Disease Origin

2.Transmission Speed

3.The impact of misinformation

Disease Origin

Probably the most shocking match with reality is that the fictitious MEV-1 disease depicted in the movie originates from animals. It virus has transmitted from bats to pigs to humans.  The information we have today (2020) about COVID-19 tells us that it has an animal origin too: a bat, to a pangolin, to reach humans finally.

We believed that the disease made its way from a bat to a pangolin in a wet market, specifically, this market in Wuhan (China) where they trade wildlife. Moreover, the first case of COVID-19 was reported somewhere in November 2019. The conditions of the market likely created a similar deadly coincidence. (Animals stacked on top of each other)

Transmission speed

Now, while only a small portion of the Chinese population eats wildlife animals, the highly contagious nature of COVID-19 allowed it to quickly spread from patient zero, into the city of Wuhan (China). Which brings the next point of transmission speed. The reproduction number will use to estimate and represent how quickly a virus can spread. We use a similar amount in the startup world to determine when a product is ‘viral,’ meaning users that convert other users. 

Like COVID-19, the fictitious virus is respiratory. It can live in surfaces, fomites (18:28), for several hours or even days- making it all that easy to spread. In the movie (Contagion 2011), patient zero contracts the virus in Hong Kong. This case is somewhere technically another match and imports it to the US. We see small of the development of the pandemic in other countries, but in the US, it spreads extremely fast. 

While MEV-1 and COVID-19 share a similar R-naught factor, in the movie, 125+ million people will infect about a month after patient zero. Patient Zero for the US showed up on January 19th, 2020. While testing hasn’t been the most efficient in the country, the official estimate today is about 10,725 infected ( Based on www.worldometers.info). In the Contagion 2011 film, the response from health authorities and the government was quick, with quarantine zones established as soon as 14 days after the first death. 

The impact of misinformation

However, it’s the impact and dynamics of misinformation and mass hysteria, where we can find eerie similarities with our 2020 reality. Jude Law’s character, a blogger in Contagion movie that credited with noticing the epidemic early on. It Begins disseminates false theories, distrust in the government with fake news, with no other seeming purpose than generating traffic for his website and chaos. Alan pretends to contract the disease and fakes getting better using a natural extract called “Forsythia.” Forsythia is a real herb used to treat bronchitis and believed to help reduce inflammation.

Even today, without adequate evidence to be used in medicine.  Alan’s claims release chaos as misinformed masses begin to try to get their hands on the extract. Similarly, in 2020 a group of conspiracy theorists including Alex Jones has already started promoting Micro-Particle Colloidal Silver Generator. Insisting that “beats coronavirus,” claiming they have “clinical documentation” to prove it. A cease was issued by the NY Attorney General to stop them. However, we are yet to find out if it does anything to hold them. 

There are shortages with masks (which have advised against by the World Health Organization), toilet papers, and hand sanitizer for some reason.  In the Contagion 2011 film, when a vaccine is developed incorrectly. (just 133 days after patient zero). Then Jude Law’s character threatens to continue misinforming his followers. He spread false information about the potential side effects of the vaccine, including autism.

Stay Safe

The Contagion 2011 film predicts a suspension in essential services, food shortages, and mass graves. Let’s hope we don’t see any of that.  I am using this opportunity to remind everyone that washing your hands with soap is the best route. Soap is the best agent to break down the protein and lipid walls of the virus. Please don’t forget to use a face mask too.

Where I can watch contagion – Click Here to Free Download Contagion 2011